The American Health Care Act, as formally passed by the House of Representatives, still causes up to 23 million Americans to lose health care coverage, according to the score released by the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office. The score of the actual bill passed by the House, H.R. 1628, differs little than the CBO's score for the earlier, failed attempt to replace the Affordable Care Act. The Plain Facts reported on the CBO's preliminary analysis here. According to the revised analysis, in 2018, 14 million more people will be uninsured under H.R. 1628 than under the current Affordable Care Act. The number of uninsured Americans relative to the number projected under current law increases to 19 million in 2020 and 23 million in 2026. Also according to the CBO, under the AHCA, premiums for individual health insurance policies will increase about 20 percent in 2018 and five percent in 2019. However, starting in 2020, premiums for individual polices may start to decline. The CBO also determined that the House bill should reduce the federal deficit by about $1 trillion over the years 2017 through 2026, primarily through reductions in Medicaid spending and from the replacement of the Affordable Care Act subsidies for nongroup health insurance with new tax credits for nongroup health insurance. The accompany chart summarizes the CBO's estimates of the effect on the federal budget. Further, the respected Tax Policy Center estimates that the tax savings generated by the AHCA fall to the richest households, while the bottom 80 percent of households receive almost no relief. In fact, the Tax Policy Center estimates that the top 1 percent of taxpayers with the highest earnings (annual income of over $772,000) get a tax cut of $37,000 per year. The top 0.1 percent of taxpayers by income receive an annual tax cut of over $200,000. These households have an annual income over $3.9 million.
The tax initiative President Trump's administration recently announced likely will increase the federal debt and benefit the wealthy, without any long-term benefit to the economy. The President's tax initiative is similar to the proposal he advanced during the presidential campaign. The independent Tax Policy Center analyzed the campaign plan, and determined that it will increase the federal deficit by $7 trillion over the first 10 years, and that by 2024, gross domestic product will be less than expected without the tax revision. Also, the administration's plan will significantly benefit higher income taxpayers. Those in the top .1 percent of taxpayers could expect an average savings of $1.1 million, or 14 percent of their after tax income. Taxpayers in the middle fifth of households will only see a tax savings of $1,010, or only 1.8 percent of their after tax income. Moreover, the respected Brookings Institution studied the country's historical tax policies, including tax cuts and increases, and found no compelling evidence of economic growth through tax cuts.
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