A second federal agency has determined that millions will lose their health insurance under the proposed American Health Care Act (AHCA). The Office of the Actuary, of the Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, determined that, under the AHCA, 4 million Americans become uninsured in 2018 under the AHCA, mainly due to the impact of repealing the individual mandate requirement of the existing Affordable Care Act (ACA). The Office of the Actuary estimates that by 2026, 13 million Americans lose their insurance if the AHCA passes, as opposed to the coverage expected from leaving the ACA in place. This estimate differs from the 23 million Americans expected to lose their health insurance, as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, and reported on The Plain Facts here.
The reduction in the number of Americans with health insurance results mostly from declines in eligibility for Medicaid, the impact of the repeal of the individual mandate, and the net reduction to subsidies available for the purchase of individual insurance. The Office of the Actuary also determined that, in the individual insurance market, average net premiums for health insurance will rise slightly under the AHCA, but that out of pocket costs for those purchasing individual health insurance policies will soar by 61 percent by 2026. Additionally, the Office of the Actuary estimates that 3 million Americans will lose employer-sponsored health insurance by 2026, if the AHCA becomes law.
The Office of the Actuary is an independent technical adviser to both Congress and the President, and its work does not represent an official position of the Department of Health & Human Services or the Administration.
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